As we march closer to November and the coming decision of the American people to re-elect the president or choose a new individual, how much will the outcome affect the construction industry? How much of the current financial crisis in Europe will truly affect the American construction industry? As I talk to many contractors around the country, optimism has returned, but will the uncertainty of a close election and the European market make their optimism turn into worry about another decline in new construction start-ups?
Many political strategists speak about the benefits that a Democratic president might have on the economy versus a Republican president, and vice versa. The main question that I ask when it pertains to forecasting future business is, “Where is the money?” The president’s party affiliation has little to do with those who actually control the purse strings of construction projects.
Most projects are built with money that has been financed through a bank. Last time I checked, most of the big banks give money to both political parties and both candidates. Banks and other institutions have been doing the typical “hedge your bet” strategy for years. The president’s political leanings rarely seem to influence the release of funds from the banks to the building owner who wishes to build something. So, what might cause a large bank from releasing funds to the construction industry for new projects?
Answer: A Financial Crisis. The current upheaval in the European market is not just causing the Dow to drop a few points. People in high places are waiting to see what the European Union will do to save the Euro. While the American mentality leads most of us to think we are not influenced by the politics and issues of the European continent, I would argue that we all need a good history lesson.
When the U.S. economy falters, the European economy stumbles. When there is political upheaval in Europe, it causes the U.S. to readdress its foreign policy. The world has shrunk so much due to technology, that it would be difficult for the banks in the U.S. not to tighten their lending policies in order to cover their possible losses in the European market. The impact will be felt in the construction industry just as it will be in all U.S. industries. The depth of that impact will not be known for many more months or even years.
Written By: Gary W. Jayne II, Sales Manager for Flannery, Inc. and a Historical Observer (but not a certified Economist).
